If they do get popular (and that’s a big if), then they will become subject to DMA rules. This isn’t a one-off investigation, the EU will reconsider if they manage to gain market share.
but hat could take many years to spin up another massive lawsuit like this, and, by then, Apple could possibly have profited kajillions, and/or have modified their communications protocols just sufficiently to skirt regulations. or one of a dozen other legal maneuvers around this or a number of other possible future regulations…
Could it? It took them half a year to do the initial investigation, and half a year to consider the objections. It doesn’t really matter that Apple could go to court over this, because they would’ve spent the same amount of time in court if the EU commission did deem iMessage to fall under the DMA.
I’m not sure how much Apple will profit from iMessage. Barely anyone in the EU seems to use it, and because it’s free after a single purchase (or second hand purchases!), it seems like it’ll only cost them money. Even in the few countries where iPhones make up the majority, people still need to have WhatsApp installed to talk to all of their friends and family.
The DMA still applies. It’s why “sideloading” (installing apps from outside the app store) and non-Safari-based web browsers are coming to iOS. The EU doesn’t need to work around “future regulations” because the regulations that apply now are fine.
I would’ve preferred Apple being forced to open their messenger platform, but they simply aren’t relevant enough to pass the (very reasonable) “10% of the EU needs to use your service to be forced to open up” threshold.
I don’t think they’re going to loop back around soon, because I don’t think iMessage’s market share will explosively grow any time soon. From what I can tell, the only growth in the messenger space seems to occur on Snapchat, the rest seems to have stagnated.
It didn’t take the EU a long time to get here at all. Last May companies were told to report in if their user base came close to 10% of the EU market (ignoring that request would be pretty bad, as in “periodic fines for 5% of worldwide daily revenue” bad). By July, the gatekeepers were notified. By September, the initial conclusion of gatekeepers was made. Now, all objections have been taken into account.
That’s four months to appoint gatekeepers, and four months to complete the investigation and consider objections. In terms of regulations, that’s basically a snap decision, considering these regulations need to take into account the market share and applicable restrictions in 27 different countries.
If Apple’s messenger market share doubles for some reason next month, and they do cross the threshold, they’ll have to have iMessage open to third parties before Christmas. It’s really not that big a deal.
It’s not about the explosive growth (or not) of iMessage. It’s a matter of fact about the legal foothold that Apple now holds. That won’t be dislodged anytime soon. Whether or not Apple can get any market growth moving forward, now the EU will have to re-file any efforts to this ruling to them in the future should they try. That is a big deal. And nothing anyone in trying in the EU will move forward anything near the weight this attempt did.

What legal foothold, exactly? The conclusion that their messaging service isn’t important enough to negatively affect the market?
Whether or not Apple can get any market growth moving forward
If they don’t grow, the EU won’t need to do anything, because the status quo remains.
And nothing anyone in trying in the EU will move forward anything near the weight this attempt did.
The commission that did the initial market research is legally obligated to continuously monitor markets. This isn’t a one-off thing, nor was it an “attempt” at anything. If the EU wanted iMessage to be opened up, they would’ve written the law better.
The DMA is a law to protect against de-facto gatekeepers, and iMessage just isn’t important enough to be called a gatekeeper.
If they do get popular (and that’s a big if), then they will become subject to DMA rules. This isn’t a one-off investigation, the EU will reconsider if they manage to gain market share.
maybe…
but hat could take many years to spin up another massive lawsuit like this, and, by then, Apple could possibly have profited kajillions, and/or have modified their communications protocols just sufficiently to skirt regulations. or one of a dozen other legal maneuvers around this or a number of other possible future regulations…
Could it? It took them half a year to do the initial investigation, and half a year to consider the objections. It doesn’t really matter that Apple could go to court over this, because they would’ve spent the same amount of time in court if the EU commission did deem iMessage to fall under the DMA.
I’m not sure how much Apple will profit from iMessage. Barely anyone in the EU seems to use it, and because it’s free after a single purchase (or second hand purchases!), it seems like it’ll only cost them money. Even in the few countries where iPhones make up the majority, people still need to have WhatsApp installed to talk to all of their friends and family.
The DMA still applies. It’s why “sideloading” (installing apps from outside the app store) and non-Safari-based web browsers are coming to iOS. The EU doesn’t need to work around “future regulations” because the regulations that apply now are fine.
I would’ve preferred Apple being forced to open their messenger platform, but they simply aren’t relevant enough to pass the (very reasonable) “10% of the EU needs to use your service to be forced to open up” threshold.
I try not to predict the future. it took them a long time to get here. I they’e going to loop back around, I can’t see it happening again soon.
I don’t think they’re going to loop back around soon, because I don’t think iMessage’s market share will explosively grow any time soon. From what I can tell, the only growth in the messenger space seems to occur on Snapchat, the rest seems to have stagnated.
It didn’t take the EU a long time to get here at all. Last May companies were told to report in if their user base came close to 10% of the EU market (ignoring that request would be pretty bad, as in “periodic fines for 5% of worldwide daily revenue” bad). By July, the gatekeepers were notified. By September, the initial conclusion of gatekeepers was made. Now, all objections have been taken into account.
That’s four months to appoint gatekeepers, and four months to complete the investigation and consider objections. In terms of regulations, that’s basically a snap decision, considering these regulations need to take into account the market share and applicable restrictions in 27 different countries.
If Apple’s messenger market share doubles for some reason next month, and they do cross the threshold, they’ll have to have iMessage open to third parties before Christmas. It’s really not that big a deal.
It’s not about the explosive growth (or not) of iMessage. It’s a matter of fact about the legal foothold that Apple now holds. That won’t be dislodged anytime soon. Whether or not Apple can get any market growth moving forward, now the EU will have to re-file any efforts to this ruling to them in the future should they try. That is a big deal. And nothing anyone in trying in the EU will move forward anything near the weight this attempt did. 
What legal foothold, exactly? The conclusion that their messaging service isn’t important enough to negatively affect the market?
If they don’t grow, the EU won’t need to do anything, because the status quo remains.
The commission that did the initial market research is legally obligated to continuously monitor markets. This isn’t a one-off thing, nor was it an “attempt” at anything. If the EU wanted iMessage to be opened up, they would’ve written the law better.
The DMA is a law to protect against de-facto gatekeepers, and iMessage just isn’t important enough to be called a gatekeeper.