Once El Niño is done. This year is likely anomalous compared to average, but is likely the new normal for El Niño years. I’d say wait until the next ‘normal’ year ( not El Niño nor La Niña) to declare anything. That being said, you could claim that it is certainly going to die with low risk of being wrong.
I would say yes, although there is the slim possibility that these few years are an outlier. No serious person should count on it, however, because the consequences of being wrong in spite of what we’re seeing are downright apocalyptic.
This is an El Nino year too, La Nina years will drag down the average somewhat. You can even see the inflection in the chart when el Nino started. Though obviously the charts are not looking great, with or without El Nino.
So, when can we safely declare 1.5C dead? Because, um, well, it’s not looking great.
Once El Niño is done. This year is likely anomalous compared to average, but is likely the new normal for El Niño years. I’d say wait until the next ‘normal’ year ( not El Niño nor La Niña) to declare anything. That being said, you could claim that it is certainly going to die with low risk of being wrong.
I would say yes, although there is the slim possibility that these few years are an outlier. No serious person should count on it, however, because the consequences of being wrong in spite of what we’re seeing are downright apocalyptic.
This is an El Nino year too, La Nina years will drag down the average somewhat. You can even see the inflection in the chart when el Nino started. Though obviously the charts are not looking great, with or without El Nino.
While true, it’s important to remember that 1.5 was the goal for 2050 (as a 30 year average). That seems fairly unlikely at this point
Oh I agree, absolutely. Just thought I’d add that as some people might wonder what that big jump was halfway through last year.