Only time will tell, but I remember when the same sort of claims were made about him calling the 2016 race a toss up. Although it does look like I have some links to read.

It’s odd to me that the reasoning given here and in the article for this problem for the Democrats is that they aren’t acting Republican enough and they are too leftist.

For the most part the average Black voter doesn’t identify as Liberal. And that makes sense when you think about it. The median Black voter is a rural or suburban 50+ year old who left the Republican Party because they endorsed the Southern Strategy, not because of conservative policy support. So being “more leftist” isn’t really going to win more of the black vote. They’re already winning the black vote that cares about “leftist” policies.

Also I’m sorry I can’t leave it, but are you saying that the BLM “cohort” prefer trump in there? I’m not going to say that anyone is enthusiastic about Biden, but Trump encouraged beat downs across the country and threatened to march the military on these folks.

Added a highlight for the important part. The BLM cohort is not likely to vote for Trump this election. But they’re also not likely to be energized to vote for Biden. And history shows us that unenthusiastic support leads to low turnout. And part of why they’re so unenthusiastic is that the Dems ran the “Anti-BLM” ticket with Biden/Harris.

Another classic blunder by her and her campaign.

But on the polls specifically, when polling showed her even with Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan and he was travelling around those states like a madman campaigning. She was snoozing it up with rich donors in California and not campaigning.

Many student loans have been forgiven. He can’t do forgiveness as broadly as he’d like, the GOP is fighting him on that, but he continues to fight for it and is getting more. My own mother is in her 60s and has another 10+ years on her student loan - but I am hopeful his student loan forgiveness will reach her - she has applied and right now it is just a waiting game (information over the past year has been very confusing regarding what to do and when).

Biden negotiated away his ability to suspend student loan payments to get a temporary budget passed. He didn’t have to do that. He could have kept payments suspended until the forgiveness hit. He chose not to prioritize it.

This was Clinton’s strategy when she lost to Trump.

That’s a fair point and it should be taken into account. But at the same time, this is Nate Silver. He’s essentially the pre-eminent expert on polling, polling errors, and best practices in that regard. And what’s more; when you imagine the different potential political factions amongst the African American community (a practice Dems try not to do); it’s not hard to see why 2016 to today could have soured them significantly. Some examples from my family, friends, and extended family:

• As much as Republicans aren’t great on “black issues” under Trump Black Labor saw unprecedented gains in employment and income (until COVID hit). And a cohort of black voters are economic voters first.
• The “vaccine mandate” talk from the left didn’t go over well in Southern Communities where the oldest (like my grandparents) remember. And Oftentimes knew people that were part of things like Tuskegee (which was also one of many experiments like this. It’s just that the exceptional journalistic work and integrity of several academics and journalists brought this one instance to light).
• Student Loan debt affects people from lower and middle-class families a lot. The promise and almost delivery of student loan relief and then the total rug pull of it and sellout of the Biden Administration towards it soured lots of people.
• It’s not like Africans don’t know what Alzheimer’s is. And Biden’s refusal to even address the concerns impact black voters as much as they do whites.
• For the BLM cohort; running the guy who designed and championed the three strikes policy that has put so many blacks in jail for life unnecessarily and then running a prosecutor who knowingly tried to keep innocent black people in jail to maintain appearances doesn’t sit right. Especially when the other guy made it a habit to pardon wrongly or likely wrongly convicted men and women of color and did so at an exceptional clip.
• Inflation is super high and FED interest rates are 59 times higher than they were when Biden was elected. For “low information” voters that’s just Biden’s fault. But even for “high information” voters they realize that Trump was willing to bully the FED to keep those numbers down. “Stagflation” killed Carter it can kill Biden too.

It’s really not at all surprising that the current Dem ticket isn’t going to win black voters at 90% clips.