I think they will “obey” but it will cost Trump an enormous amount of political capital. Any trouble at all in a war like that, any serious insurgency or international blowback, will have an outsized effect on public perception. Americans DO NOT like foreign wars, it’s weirdly part of what got trump elected, frustration with neo-liberal interventionism is an often overlooked element of his bases sense of grievance.

Realistically, do we believe he’ll make a serious attempt at taking control over these by force? Or is this just bluster? I’m starting to believe he may be legitimately intending to make a move for this territory, and frankly, I don’t think there are forces that would have the interest, or capability to oppose him. Too much of the global community has been browbeat into aligning with US interests. That for them to make a clean break, or even directly oppose the US is not a realistic expectation. I could easily see them folding to these sorts of demands, and that worries me.