The fears people who like to talk about the singularity like to propose is that there will be one ‘rogue’ misaligned ASI that progressively takes over everything - i.e. all the AI in the world works against all the people.

My point is that more likely is there will be lots of ASI or AGI systems, not aligned to each other, most on the side of the humans.

I think any prediction based on a ‘singularity’ neglects to consider the physical limitations, and just how long the journey towards significant amounts of AGI would be.

The human brain has an estimated 100 trillion neuronal connections - so probably a good order of magnitude estimation for the parameter count of an AGI model.

If we consider a current GPU, e.g. the 12 GB GFX 3060, it can hold about 24 billion parameters at 4 bit quantisation (in reality a fair few less), and uses 180 W of power. So that means an AGI might use 750 kW of power to operate. A super-intelligent machine might use more. That is a farm of 2500 300W solar panels, while the sun is shining, just for the equivalent of one person.

Now to pose a real threat against the billions of humans, you’d need more than one person’s worth of intelligence. Maybe an army equivalent to 1,000 people, powered by 8,333,333 GPUs and 2,500,000 solar panels.

That is not going to materialise out of the air too quickly.

In practice, as we get closer to an AGI or ASI, there will be multiple separate deployments of similar sizes (within an order of magnitude), and they won’t be aligned to each other - some systems will be adversaries of any system executing a plan to destroy humanity, and will be aligned to protect against harm (AI technologies are already widely used for threat analysis). So you’d have a bunch of malicious systems, and a bunch of defender systems, going head to head.

The real AI risks, which I think many of the people ranting about singularities want to obscure, are:

• An oligopoly of companies get dominance over the AI space, and perpetuates a ‘rich get richer’ cycle, accumulating wealth and power to the detriment of society. OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and AWS are probably all battling for that. Open models is the way to battle that.
• People can no longer trust their eyes when it comes to media; existing problems of fake news, deepfakes, and so on become so severe that they undermine any sense of truth. That might fundamentally shift society, but I think we’ll adjust.
• Doing bad stuff becomes easier. That might be scamming, but at the more extreme end it might be designing weapons of mass destruction. On the positive side, AI can help defenders too.
• Poor quality AI might be relied on to make decisions that affect people’s lives. Best handled through the same regulatory approaches that prevent companies and governments doing the same with simple flow charts / scripts.

I think the most striking thing is that for outsiders (i.e. non repo members) the acceptance rates for gendered are lower by a large and significant amount compared to non-gendered, regardless of the gender on Google+.

The definition of gendered basically means including the name or photo. In other words, putting your name and/or photo as your GitHub username is significantly correlated with decreased chances of a PR being merged as an outsider.

I suspect this definition of gendered also correlates heavily with other forms of discrimination. For example, name or photo likely also reveals ethnicity or skin colour in many cases. So an alternative hypothesis is that there is racism at play in deciding which PRs people, on average, accept. This would be a significant confounding factor with gender if the gender split of Open Source contributors is different by skin colour or ethnicity (which is plausible if there are different gender roles in different nations, and obviously different percentages of skin colour / ethnicity in different nations).

To really prove this is a gender effect they could do an experiment: assign participants to submit PRs either as a gendered or non-gendered profile, and measure the results. If that is too hard, an alternative for future research might be to at least try harder to compensate for confounding effects.

I think they’ll be useful for applications where the energy per unit of mass isn’t what matters. So not vehicles and not mobile devices - but there are still a huge range of applications left, especially in a world where we urgently need to move from fossil fuels to abundant but intermittent sources like solar and wind energy.

Isn’t that a prerequisite for enshitification?

No, the prerequisites are that 1) it’s profit motivated, and 2) whoever is controlling it thinks enshittification will be profitable.

Those can certainly be met for a privately held company!

Publicly-traded companies are required (by law, I think) to maximize profits for their shareholders

That’s not true in any major market that I know of. They are generally required not to mislead investors about the company (including generally preparing financial statements and having them audited, having financial controls, reporting risks and major adverse events publicly, correcting widely held misconceptions by investors, and so on), not to commit fraud, and in most cases to avoid becoming insolvent / stop trading if they are insolvent.

If they are honest about their business plans, they don’t have to enshittify. Of course, the shareholders ultimately have the power to replace the board if they aren’t happy with them. Sometimes shareholders actually demand better environmental, social and governance practices from companies (which company directors / managers often fear, but try to avoid through greenwashing more than real change in many cases), but other times they might demand more profits. Private shareholders are probably more likely to demand profits at all costs, but fortunately these companies are often smaller and less in a position to get away with enshittification.

I think the real problem is not understanding that it’s not a binary bad or good (not understanding might be understating motivations… it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it and all that).

Yes, realistically we are already well committed to a path that is going to cause great hardship for future generations. But it isn’t going to be an extinction level event by itself. We most definitely can still make things worse, even if we’ve already messed up rather badly.

Nothing like investors who they perceive will be less rational, and will buy / not sell at a price above what the fundamentals suggests is rational.

It could pay off for Reddit if they get a short squeeze - non-institutional investors might be slower to sell, and I bet a lot of people will be shorting the stock unless the IPO price is really low.

Ironically the bot summary missed the crucial point that Air Canada’s chatbot gave inaccurate information.

The statistics demonstrate, beyond all reasonable doubt, that journalists are more likely to be killed compared to the already high base rate for Palestinian civilians: https://lemmy.amxl.com/comment/752651 - targeted weapons on journalist vehicles just makes it more blatant. This is not going to look good for those involved if they ever face justice for targeting civilians.

Maybe a good countermeasure would be a lot of honeypot fake cameras that actually just play old video on a loop, or AI generated fake video. Then they might struggle to work out which cameras are real, and waste their time on fake intel.

Presumably the drones do either have pre-programmed flight paths in them, or are flown by radio that can be triangulated - and giving up that location information probably is equivalent to ‘snitching’.

I think alienating all the advertisers probably didn’t help much either.

That’s generally not recommended as a way of stripping them though, since the coating is often made of polyurethanes, which release alkyl isocyanates (highly toxic) when heated strongly. While a small amount in a well-ventilated area might not be enough to give you any problems, if you get too much it is very bad. The organic material will also impact the ability to solder. Better to scrape it off first.

I always thought of Raspberry Pi as a not-for-profit and supported it on that basis. If the model was supposed to be like Mozilla where they have a not-for-profit and a corporation that is wholly owned by the not-for-profit, then it seems like selling out the corporation to for-profit investors runs contrary to the goals of the not-for-profit. Does anyone know why they are allowing the corporation to be sold off?