A new study suggests that the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

“It’s observational data from the South Atlantic which suggest the AMOC is on tipping course. Not the model simulation, which is just there to get a better understanding of which early warning signals work, and why.”

Stefan Rahmstorf: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc-is-on-tipping-course/ @climate

#AMOC #EWS #warningSignals #climateChange #dataViz #maps #map #Scotland #Iceland #Norway #Denmark #climate #ColdBlob #NorthSea #Atlantic

  • ashwinvis :cc:@fediscience.org
    0·
    7 months ago

    @maugendre
    Also worth pointing out from the blog:

    > Given the impacts, the risk of an AMOC collapse is something to be avoided at all cost. As I’ve said before: the issue is not whether we’re sure this is going to happen. The issue is that we need to rule this out at 99.9 % probability. Once we have a definite warning signal it will be too late to do anything about it, given the inertia in the system.

    @climate

    • Sonori@beehaw.org
      0·
      7 months ago

      I mean, it’s already slowed by a third, hasn’t it? I know that it’s actual effects don’t scale won’t that, but I thought that we had already accepted that it would fall below the minimum threshold it can operate at sometime between 2030 amd 2045 ish unless we start doing a lot more from the pile of things we could be doing to lower carbon emissions but arn’t.